Australia’s Population Growth by Component – Moving Annual Total (MAT) 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Increase in population (MAT) Natural Increase MAT Net Overseas Migration MAT accelerating through to the September 2017 A focus by the states on supporting higher levels HIA CONSIDERS quarter. The revised figures highlight a peak in the of housing supply has been evident in recent years THERE ARE CLEAR growth rate at the start of last year after which the with supply meeting demand for the first time in pace has slowed. many decades. However, many more years of ECONOMIC Reasons for the recent slowdown stable supply are needed to make up the historic BENEFITS TO A shortfall and reach a true equilibrium. WELL-DESIGNED The earlier peak in Australia’s latest population At HIA’s National Policy Congress in May, AND IMPLEMENTED cycle indicates a slowing in the population growth members recommitted to supporting a measured rate, which taken in isolation is a negative for approach to immigration and hence population IMMIGRATION housing demand. This slowdown is occurring at growth, adopting a revised policy position on POLICY the same time as Australia is losing its competitive population and immigration. edge in attracting skilled migrants. One factor is Reaching the milestone of 25 million Australians the sustained, strong recovery in the US economy, will bring additional attention to population issues, as well as relative improvements in economic and the public focus is expected to remain strong conditions in the EU, Canada and New Zealand. in the lead up to a federal election, this year or Changes were made by the federal government next. There are clear economic benefits to a well- in 2017 to skilled worker visas (a form of temporary designed and implemented immigration policy. visa that can lead to permanent migration). This is already seeing a reduction in the amount of skilled- In summary: HIA’s policy position labour workers choosing to move to Australia. on population and immigration In a significant difference to the policy introduced • Australia should promote and maintain a by the Labor government almost a decade ago, population growth rate sufficient to secure the annual cap of 190,000 people on permanent ongoing growth in Australia’s economic migration is not binding. The government can now performance, workforce capacity, national choose to issue fewer visas than this number per productivity and standard of living. To this end, it year. In 2016/17 there were 183,608 permanent follows that caps and limits need not be placed migrants. Figures released in late July revealed that in categories such as skilled and business in 2017/18 this number dropped to 162,417. migration. Another factor in the slower growth is that the • Australia’s population growth policies should mini natural population boom Australia experienced target working-aged skilled migration and in the 2000s after the Howard government business migration so as to mitigate the rate of introduced the Baby Bonushas completely run its decline in the proportion of our working-aged course. population compared to those aged 65 and over. Implications for housing • HIA supports a managed migration program Despite the slower growth, the population that delivers adequate skilled migrants in continues to rise. For many years there has been construction and building professions and trades no nationally coordinated strategic response from to meet Australia’s ongoing housing needs. state and federal governments to the steady boom • For the residential building industry, employer in population. Housing, infrastructure and other sponsorship rules should be contemplated that services like health and education are not keeping allow industry groups to sponsor contractors in up. As a consequence resources remain stretched the residential building industry. to varying degrees across our major cities. For most • The residential building industry should be Australians, this reality is what impacts their day-to- consulted in the development of skilled migration day lives – the pressure of more people living in our programs to provide guidance on the verification cities and relying on the existing infrastructure of overseas skills, licensing and qualification Harley Dale: HIA Executive Director, and services. benchmarks. Skills and Industry Development SEPTEMBER 2018 HOUSING 41 IN FOCUS • POPULATION 79 ceD89ceD99ceD00ceD10ceD20ceD30ceD40ceD50ceD60ceD70ceD80ceD90ceD01ceD11ceD21ceD31ceD41ceD51ceD61ceD71ceD0.1013 SBA :ecruoS