ON FARM NATIONAL • knowing the chance of having above- average rainfall this coming spring ora heatwave two weeks from now will Forewarned allow producers to plan ahead is Forearmed • moving livestock from low-lying areas The five‑year Forewarned is if it’s known there is a high probability Forearmed project is managed by of localised flooding MLA and supported by funding • moving lambing ewes or calving cows from the federal Department of to more sheltered paddocks if a very Agriculture, Water and the cold spell is forecast Environment. It’s part of the • making adjustments to stocking rates government’s Rural R&D for Profit and carrying capacity, armed with program, in partnership with rural seasonal forecasts for rainfall. research and development corporations, state government Producers are playing a role in ensuring departments and universities. The the developed tools meet their project is closely aligned with requirements through the project’s research from the University of industry reference groups. Melbourne, the South Australian They provided feedback to BOM Research and Development about the kinds of weather extremes Institute, the University of which affect their operations and the Southern Queensland and the types of decisions they could make Department of Agriculture and with more localised and accurate Fisheries Queensland, which are long-range forecasts. working with industry reference groups to understand on‑farm These two graphs depict the similarity As the project progresses, producers decision making in extreme events. between forecast and observed temperatures provide ongoing feedback on the bom.gov.au/research/projects/ in September 2019, as a result of sudden useability of the forecasting tools stratospheric warming. While this data FWFA relates to the observed and predicted and even the ‘look and feel’ of the temperatures at 10hPa (/home/webapps/asp_au/data/asp/publications/au-meat-and-livestock-australia/2617-mla-feedback-mag_jul-aug_d17aw_web30km above surface eventual products. over the South Pole), this resulted in higher temperatures on the Australian mainland as BOM Principal Research Scientist Doug McNicholl well. The contours are the distribution of theDebra Hudson said producer feedback E: dmcnicholl@mla.com.au mean temperature, which show the usual cold vortex over the South Pole, with mean has underpinned which experimental Harry Hendon temperature as low as 200K (‑73°C). The red forecasts are the most useful and E: harry.hendon@bom.gov.au shading shows the departure from normal should be further developed. during September 2019 (>30K warmer) as a Building resilient businesses result of the stratospheric warming. “Forecasts are pretty complicated – feature in Feedback magazine’s it’s all about probability and shifts in December 2019/January 2020 “When they happen, they tend to cause likelihood,” she said. edition (page 16) more extreme climate conditions mla.com.au/feedback in Australia. “It’s important for us to “However, we now recognise better identify how we stratospheric warming is an additional can communicate so source of long lead predictability the forecasts are not and they are well predicted with our ACCESS-S climate forecast model.” misunderstood. Producers Forewarned is Forearmed are really helping us The FWFA project will provide with that. producers with the first-ever forecasts of climate extremes (heatwave, “The sorts of climatic events we frosts and heavy rainfall) beyond the examine are often large scale, but what seven-day weather forecast and into really matters to producers is what the weeks and seasons ahead. happens locally. For more information on how the This will assist with decision making and “One of the more direct and tangible Forewarned is Forearmed project, led by decrease the effects of such events on benefits of this project is that we will MLA, is equipping producers and agricultural value chains to proactively manage farm productivity, by giving producers have new tools to enable improved the impacts of extreme climate events, information to take action in response on-farm risk management associated visit bom.gov.au/research/projects/FWFA/ to forecast extreme events, such as: with these sorts of events.” ■ 19