ON FARM SHEEP MARKET INFORMATION Export demand underpins record sheepmeat price Sdemand for Australiantrong internationalsheepmeat continuesto underpin historically high lamb and mutton prices, buoying producers with stock available as severe drought conditions continue. In the September update of MLA’s Industry projections 2019: Australian sheep, forecast lamb exports are revised slightly higher on previous projections to 268,000 tonnes shipped weight (swt). National lamb slaughter has also been revised slightly higher and is now expected to reach 21.6 million head, a decline of 5% on 2018. MLA Senior Market Analyst Adam However, as producers in many 2% year‑on‑year, while sheep carcase Cheetham said domestic sheep and regions face water shortages and are weights are forecast to remain stable on lamb indicators surged to new highs in destocking or opting not to join their 2018 at 23.7kg. 2019 as demand from overseas markets ewes, the forecast lamb slaughter reflects reduced ewe numbers and Adam said significant seasonal outweighed domestic availability and variability has presented challenges more than offset the price pressure generally poor marking rates. in ascertaining how national lambing usually associated with a prolonged Breeding ewe turn‑off, while elevated rates have performed, however, the dry period. at the beginning of the year, eased overwhelming consensus is for fewer “There’s been exceptionally strong during winter as producers looked lambs to enter the market for the demand from China and the United to spring and post‑weaning before remainder of 2019. States in particular, supported by assessing feed availability. As a result, a depreciating Australian dollar,” the annual sheep slaughter forecast High sheep slaughter and poor joining Adam said. remains unchanged from the previous and lambing rates has seen the national projections at 8.5 million head. sheep flock now estimated to be 66 “Prices across all categories reached million head, representing a decline of record levels during winter. The nationalLamb production is forecast to decline 6.5% year‑on‑year. saleyard trade lamb indicator powered 3% year‑on‑year to 495,000 tonnes through 900c/kg at the beginning of carcase weight (cwt). Adam Cheetham July and ultimately reached a peak of This will be partially offset by increasing E: acheetham@mla.com.au 950c/kg, 9% above the high achieved carcase weights, as producers with in September 2018.” lambs on hand but limited feed MLA’s Industry projections 2019: Seasonal factors have increasingly refined their Australian sheep – September production systems to reflect the update are available at: Once conditions improve, Adam said difficult conditions, with greater focus mla.com.au/sheep‑projections strong prices for mutton and lamb are on supplementary feeding and lot For the latest market news and expected from increased restocking feeding lambs. trends, visit the Prices & Markets activity, which will apply competitive section of the MLA website: pressure to processors looking to fulfil Expected lamb carcase weights for mla.com.au/prices‑markets export demand. 2019 are now projected at 22.9kg, up 34