RESILIENT BUSINESSES NATIONAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY A well‑stocked weather toolkit Australian livestock with MLA and others, page 23), producers are contributing producers can create opportunity to the development of new by applying existing products to seasonal climate forecasts to key decisions. ensure they’re easy to use and “Our seven‑day rainfall forecasts are provide relevant information for misinterpreted more than 90% of the on‑farm decisions. time, so understanding how to use forecasts is critical to good decision Alister Hawksford (pictured), who heads making,” he said. the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) Agriculture Program, said feedback “We’re exploring options with partners from producers has helped identify across the country to create more the biggest challenges with making tailored, interpretable forecasts that weather‑dependent decisions. directly relate to key decisions.” records just yet, Alister said there “When it comes to forecasts for Looking ahead are three products (see below) specific decisions, most producers Alister shared his tips for using forecastswhich should be part of a producer’s we surveyed said stocking and accurately at an MLA Livestock Advisor decision‑making toolbox. restocking was their most important Update (page 36). “Use these tools to drill down to decision, followed by when to fertilise “Increasing climate variability is increasingfarm‑level information and mitigate or sow crops and pastures,” Alister said. the financial ever‑increaof grazingvolatility sing weather and “This reinforces the importance of businessesand it’s nolonger enough to climate variability. weather information that supports review seasonal trends,” he said. “The key is to understand how to decisions around when and how well “We’re in a new climate state with more interpret information from each tool, and pastures and crops will grow.” extreme and unpredictable events, so which tool provides the most applicable we need a renewed focus on what’s information for specific decisions.” ■ He said while BoM is working with coming up.” industry to make forecasting tools Alister Hawksford more accurate (for example, through While he doesn’t advocate tossing E: alister.hawksford@bom.gov.au the Forewarned is Forearmed project out your property’s historical rainfall 1 Australian LandscapeWater Balance 2 Seven‑dayforecasts 3 Seasonaloutlooks What to use it for: Identify regions What to use it for: Forecasts are updatedWhat to use it for: These outlooks where conditions are favourable every three hours to allow producers to are there to shift the odds in your to source fodder or find agistment; better plan weather‑dependent activities favour, not for big one‑off gambles. target livestock sales or purchases such as mustering, spraying and sowing. They are best suited for planning to regions based on seasonal How to use it: Search for your stocking rates over the next season conditions; and assess how much property by postcode, location name or planning which week to muster in evapotranspiration has occurred in or coordinates, or zoom in on the map. the next month. an irrigation system. To fully benefit from this tool, it’s crucialHow to use it: These forecasts were How to use it: This service can to correctly interpret the seven‑day recently upgraded to include weekly be used to access 100 years of rainfall forecast. and fortnightly forecasts. historical data about soil moisture, A common mistake is to interpret a The higher the past accuracy, the rain, run‑off and evapotranspiration forecast such as ‘60% chance of rain; more confidence you can have in on your farm. Search for your 5–10mm’ as meaning there’s a 60% using the information, so make sure property by postcode, location chance of getting 5–10mm of rain. It past accuracy is greater than 50% name or coordinates, or zoom in on really means a 60% chance of any before using the forecast in your the map. Alister said a practical use rain (precipitation over 0.2mm), a 50% decision‑making process. is to monitor current conditions in chance of getting more than 5mm and a other regions. Search for your property by 25% chance of getting more than 10mm. postcode, location name or bom.gov.au/water/landscape For tips on how to interpret the forecast,coordinates, or zoom in on the map. go to bom.gov.au and search for ‘How bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks to interpret the daily rainfall forecast’. bom.gov.au/australia/meteye 24