ON FARM NATIONAL CLIMATE MANAGEMENT5 Better weather watching with producers and one way or the other. If the Dr Luke Shelley, BOM strengthening our conditions are such that it is T: 03 9616 8484 relationships with MLA and more likely to rain than not, E: Luke.Shelley@bom. the other RDCs so we can you can think of that like there gov.au continue to develop products being more red squares. But that meet the needs of the it doesn’t mean that there’s bom.gov.au/climate/ agriculture sector.” no chance of it being dry – ahead/about Luke said that while the there are still black squares bom.gov.au and search trend was towards providing there and the ball could land ‘rainfall faq’ more and more information, on them; it’s just less likely. That’s what seasonal climate bom.gov.au and search the real challenge was forecasting is like. ‘right as rain’ for to package it to support guidance on how to meaningful decision making “The forecasting at BOM interpret the daily Forecasting weather along the supply chain. is sophisticated, but it’s rainfall forecast and climate is a “The best way industry can still about probabilities youtube.com/user/ tricky business. use weather and climate as forecasts always have BureauOfMeteorology Many variables interact forecasts to their advantage uncertainties. Our challenge to create climatic is in combination with a whole is to help communicate our patterns and day-to-day range of internal and external forecasts in more meaningful weather – predicting factors interacting with their ways to support agriculture.” ■ what they’re going to business, such as pasture do and how that will availability, stocking rates, play out is difficult. The prices and costs,” he said. Making sense shorter the forecast What is a climate of predictions period, the more forecast? accurate the forecast The Bureau describes “Say you have a weather forecast that says ‘70% chance tends to be. weather forecasts as being for of rain, 10–20mm’,” Luke said. Dr Luke Shelley (pictured) the next seven days, whereas climate forecasts predict the “That forecast has two pieces of information. It’s saying from the Bureau of next one to three months. there is a 70% chance that there will be measurable rain, Meteorology (BOM) meaning 0.2mm or above. The other numbers given – Agriculture Program, said the “Our weather forecasts aim the 10–20mm – are also based on probability. Bureau’s weather forecasts to define temperature and for the next four days are as rainfall values over the next “The first amount – the 10mm – is the 50th percentile. good as one-day forecasts week,” Luke said. That is, there is a 50% chance that there will be at least in the 1980s, and they’re “Our climate forecasts are 10mm rain. The second number – the 20mm – is the improving all the time. presented as probabilities 25th percentile number. That is, there is a 25% chance of certain events based on there will be 20mm rain. “The further out you try to predict, the less accurate it observed and modelled “Putting all that together, ‘70% chance of rain, is. But our forecast products patterns, and relate to average 10–20mm’ means there is a 70% chance that there will generally provide a range of rainfall over a period of time. be measurable rain (0.2mm or more), a 50% chance probabilities,” Luke said. “From today forward, it could there will be 10mm or more, and a 25% chance there Boosting agriculture be drier or wetter. If you will be 20mm or more.” BOM is independent of think of the red squares But there’s also a 30% chance that there will be no commercial interests, but on a roulette wheel as rain at all. is working to support a representing it being wetter and the black ones as being “If it doesn’t rain, it doesn’t mean the forecast was wrong, profitable future for agriculture. but we do measure how reliable our forecasts are over drier, it’s pretty obvious that “We aim to deliver $300 you throw the ball onto the time,” Luke said. million of value by 2022 wheel and it could land on “It’s all about probability. When we forecast, we forecast by providing better red or black; it could be patterns, and the rainfall that can result from those information to help improve wetter or drier. patterns is highly variable over time and space, making decision making and risk it very difficult to make a perfect prediction. We present management,” Luke said. “However, specific patterns that influence Australia’s probabilities so that our stakeholders can understand “We’re having conversations climate can push the odds the range of possibilities you can expect.” 30