Chapter 3: Future Demand Components of the Future Demand Section 3.1 Demand drivers – Factors influencing the demand for stormwater services. 3.2 Demand Forecasts – How future demand has been evaluated. 3.3 Demand Impact on Assets – asset additions, augmentation and utilisation to meet demand. 3.4 Demand Management Plan – Non-asset solutions to meet demand estimates. 3.5 Asset Programmes to Meet Demand – Major demand driven programmes and costs. 3.1 Demand Drivers Future demand for stormwater services is influenced by a number of factors that work together in combination. Population Growth – New Zoned Areas - The Marlborough Urban Growth Strategy in published in 2013 identified eight greenfield sites on the peripheries of the current urban areas that would be suitable for future development. These have been zoned Urban Residential. A further area to the south has been identified for employment land. Population growth – Infill Housing - Included in the strategy was a realisation that housing would intensify within the existing urban areas as plots were sub-divided. The loss of permeable ground will have consequence for stormwater run-off. Improved Levels of Service - There is a natural tendency for customers to demand higher standards of stormwater drainage and to be less tolerant of surface flooding. Improved Environmental Standards - New Zealand is very aware of its ‘clean/green’ reputation and much of the economic strategy is based on exploiting this image. There is increasing concern over the damage of human activities to the quality of waterways and coastal environment. Tighter regulation and more rigorous enforcement of existing controls can be expected in the future. Climate Change - There is still some discussion as to whether recent unusual weather events are part of a natural cycle or permanent shift due to human activities. However there has been a significant increase in extreme weather events. Researchers predict this trend will continue. As severe storms become more frequent there will be pressure to upgrade infrastructure to mitigate the impact on the urban environment. Legislation – The main legislative powers influencing stormwater services are detailed in Chapter 2. Changes in legislation may require additional drainage capacity or environmental protection upgrades. Resilience - The stormwater system provides a level of protection to the urban community from uncommon extreme events. It is important the system is robust and durable. Demand for additional security against natural hazards will require further upgrades or extension of the existing system. Page 26