Drought Overview Marlborough is sheltered from the moist westerly rains and has a climate which is regularly dry with a mean rainfall of 1,249mm. This is exacerbated during El Nino conditions and these generally result in much drier summers than normal when total rainfall can be less than 400mm per annum. These result in significant soil moisture deficits of up to 700mm over a twelve month period. The most significant droughts have been in 1969, 1973, 1998, 2001 and 2015 which was the driest on record. Extreme drought conditions can also create a high risk environment for fire, even though the fire itself may not arise through natural causes. An example of this occurred in 2000 when Marlborough recorded the highest ever national fire index level. During extreme drought conditions Marlborough has experienced some of New Zealand’s largest grass fires (eg; 6,100 ha Boxing Day fire of 2000) and pine forest fire (1,200 ha Parson’s Road of 2016). These caused huge economic losses which both had downstream impacts on other related industries. Hazard Likelihood El Niños occur irregularly approximately every two to seven years. Warm (A) water generally appears off the coast of South America close to Christmas, and reaches its peak warmth in the eastern Pacific during the late fall of the following year. In the table below the red peaks indicate when El Nino events have occurred since 1950. Table 13: La Nina and El Nino Events Since 1950. Hazard Social: Consequence (4) • Droughts cause enormous amounts of stress within farming communities and can end in tragic circumstances. Economic: • Losses through reduced productivity can be significant especially given the District’s huge reliance on primary industries for its GDP. Natural Environment: • The indigenous environment is adapted to survive during the climatic extremes in Marlborough. • Some indigenous vegetation types however will not recover if they are burnt or destroyed suggesting there is currently a fine natural balance. Marlborough Civil Defence Emergency Management Plan, 2017-2022 Page 100