Table 3: Marlborough’s Hazard Risks Hazard Risk Analysis Risk Evaluation Likelihood Consequence Rating Seriousness Manageability Growth Total Social Built Economic Natural Sub-total Reduction Readiness Response Recovery Sub-total Sub-total Local source tsunami Rare Catastrophic High 5 5 5 5 10 4 4 3 3 3.5 2 15.5 Earthquake Almost certain Catastrophic Extreme 5 5 5 5 10 2 2 2 4 2.5 3 15.5 Human pandemic Possible Catastrophic Very high 5 1 5 1 7.2 3 3 3 4 3.25 4 14.5 Marine accident Possible Catastrophic Very high 5 2 4 4 8 4 3 3 4 3.5 2 13.5 Animal epidemic Unlikely Catastrophic Very high 5 1 5 1 7.2 3 2 2 3 2.5 3 12.7 Marine pests & diseases Likely Major Very high 4 1 5 5 7 3 2 3 2 2.5 3 12.5 River flood Almost certain Major Extreme 3 5 5 3 7.6 1 1 1 3 1.5 3 12.1 Plant & animal pests Likely Major Very high 4 1 5 5 7 2 2 2 2 2 3 12.0 Electricity failure Unlikely Major High 4 3 4 1 6.9 2 2 2 2 2 3 11.9 Drought Almost certain Major Extreme 4 2 4 3 6.8 2 2 1 3 2 3 11.8 Liquefaction Almost certain Moderate Very high 3 4 4 2 6.6 2 2 2 2 2 3 11.6 Terrorism Rare Catastrophic High 5 3 4 1 7.9 1 1 1 2 1.25 2 11.2 Distance source tsunami Possible Minor Moderate 3 3 3 2 5.8 4 2 2 3 2.75 2 10.6 Water/sewerage failure Possible Moderate Moderate 4 2 3 3 6.5 2 2 2 2 2 2 10.5 Food supply Unlikely Moderate Moderate 4 1 4 1 5.9 4 2 2 2 2.5 2 10.4 Communications failure Likely Moderate High 4 1 4 1 5.9 2 2 2 2 2 2 9.9 Rural fire Almost certain Moderate Very high 3 2 4 2 5.6 1 1 1 2 1.25 3 9.9 Rail accident Possible Catastrophic Very high 4 1 3 2 5.8 2 2 2 2 2 2 9.8 Air accident Possible Catastrophic Very high 4 1 3 1 5.6 2 2 2 2 2 2 9.6 Landslide /subsidence Almost certain Moderate Very high 2 3 3 1 4.6 3 3 2 2 2.5 2 9.1 Dam break Rare Catastrophic High 4 3 3 2 6.8 1 1 1 2 1.25 1 9.1 Coastal erosion/flooding Almost certain Minor High 2 3 2 2 4.5 4 2 2 1 2.25 2 8.8 Frost/hail storm Almost certain Moderate Very high 3 1 5 1 5.2 2 1 1 2 1.5 2 8.7 Marlborough Civil Defence Emergency Management Plan, 2017-2022 Page 13