Three significant fault lines pass through the Marlborough district. These are the Wairau, Awatere and Clarence faults which are all off shoots of the Alpine Fault. GNS Science has calculated predictions of a rupture of the Alpine Fault in the next 50 years being as high as 50%. Recent studies have indicated a risk of liquefaction occurring east of Blenheim in the event of a significant earthquake. Local source tsunami have occurred within recorded history and predictions show a serious level of potential inundation from possible future occurrences. Numerous rural communities, particularly in the Sounds, have the potential to become isolated during an emergency because of the single points of entry, topography and remoteness. Self- reliance and preparedness become of even more importance and this needs to be fostered. Marlborough is well serviced by radio telephone communication coverage and multiple agencies are able to communicate with one another. There are many locations where no cellular coverage exists. Picton and the east coast corridor is the link for the majority of the South Island’s freight needs and a key entry point for tourists. Marae and schools are key facilities for providing welfare services in their local communities as they are often the only publicly accessible facilities in the smaller Marlborough communities. State Highway 1 and the east coast rail corridor are vulnerable to severe weather events and to earthquakes, as evidenced by the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake. Significant lifelines are carried on the State Highway bridges and berms. The Marlborough economy is based on monoculture crops such as pinus radiata, green-lipped mussels and grape vines, and other primary industries. These industries are particularly vulnerable to plant and animal incursions and diseases from outside the country. Cruise ships and log carrying ships are an obvious source for possible incursions. The sheer volume of shipping traffic in and out of the Sounds increases the likelihood of a maritime accident. The last major accident was the cruise ship Mikhail Lermontov in 1986 but there have been a number of near misses since then. The high numbers of domestic and international visitors could result in a large proportion of people having very little knowledge about what to do in an emergency. The high number of unoccupied dwellings in the Sounds would also suggest that many will have few emergency provisions. The percentage of older people residents means that communication tools need to be carefully targeted and the communities need to consider their neighbours pre and post an emergency. Given a third of older people live on their own and many lack a modern form of communication they are particularly vulnerable. At various times of the year Marlborough has large numbers of visitors and workers from overseas who will have little knowledge of what to do in an emergency and who may be isolated for periods of time. Nelson Port and State Highway 6 are the single points of entry for fuel and gas supplies into Marlborough. Almost all basic foodstuffs are sourced from outside the District and there is limited stock available (<3 days) in the supermarkets. Transpower transmission lines from the southern lakes to the North Island pass through Marlborough and are vulnerable to hazards such as rural fire, tsunami and earthquakes. Woodbourne Airforce Base is a potential response resource which is currently underutilised. Marlborough Civil Defence Emergency Management Plan, 2017-2022 Page 27