Hazard Risk Analysis Risk Evaluation Likelihood Consequence Rating Seriousness Manageability Growth Total Social Built Economic Natural Sub-total Reduction Readiness Response Recovery Sub-total Sub-total Fuel availability Likely Major Very high 2 2 4 1 4.4 3 2 2 2 2.25 2 8.7 Civil unrest Rare Major Moderate 2 4 4 1 5.4 1 1 1 2 1.25 2 8.7 Road accident Possible Catastrophic Very high 3 1 2 2 4.5 2 2 2 2 2 2 8.5 High winds Likely Moderate High 2 2 4 3 4.8 2 1 1 2 1.5 2 8.3 Hazardous substances & oil spills Likely Major Very high 2 2 3 5 4.9 2 2 2 2 2 1 7.9 S.H. roads closed. rare Minor Very low 2 1 3 1 3.6 2 2 2 2 2 2 7.6 Urban fire Unlikely Major High 2 3 2 1 4.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 6.3 Marlborough Civil Defence Emergency Management Plan, 2017-2022 Page 14