The most recent events in Marlborough were in 2013 and 106, The 2013 Lake Grassmere/Kapara Te Hau earthquake which was a magnitude 6.6 earthquake that occurred at 2:31pm on Friday 16 August 2013. The epicentre was located about 10 km south-east of Seddon, under Lake Grassmere/Kapara Te Hau, with a focal depth of 8 km. The earthquake caused significant land damage in the local area, with landslips blocking roads, including the main highway between Blenheim and Christchurch. Eight houses were evacuated by the Marlborough District Council and another 11 allowed only restricted access. There were only minor injuries sustained however the earthquake was widely felt in both the North and South Islands of New Zealand. The 2106 Kaikoura earthquake was a magnitude 7.8 (M) earthquakew that occurred two minutes after midnight on 14 November 2016NZDT (11:02 on 13 November Ruptures occurred on multiple faults and the earthquake has been described as the "most complex earthquake ever studied". The earthquake started at about 15 kilometres north-east ofCulverden and 60 kilometres south-west of the tourist town of Kaikouraand at a depth of approximately 15 kilometres. The complex sequence of ruptures lasted for about two minutes. The cumulative magnitude of the ruptures was 7.8, with the largest amount of that energy released far to the north of the epicentre. South Marlborough communities and the East Coast road and rail infrastructure were particularly hard hit, including in Seddon, where people were still dealing with earthquakes in 2013. There is a continuous history of very large quakes in New Zealand with the following 6 recognised as the most significant: 1100 Alpine Fault estimated to be between 7.6 and 8.3, 1460 Wellington estimated to be an 8.0, 1610 Alpine Fault estimated to be between 7.6 and 8.3, 1717 Alpine Fault estimated to be a magnitude 8.1, 1826 Fiordland 8.0 and 1855 Wairarapa at 8.2. The Wairarapa earthquake impacted the Marlborough District with one feature, Waikārapi (Vernon) Lagoon, being created by the resulting land subsidence and the resultant tsunami also caused damage on the coastline. Hazard Likelihood In the last 10 years New Zealand has experienced 25 earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or (A) more and 7 over 7.0 (Raoul 2006 7.5 and 7.1, Raoul 2007 7.8, Dusky 2009 7.8, Darfield 2010 7.1, Raoul 2011 7.6 and 7.3). GNS Science has done a lot of work recently in studying the Alpine Fault and has determined that it fractures approximately every 300 years. There is clear evidence that there have been 26 large earthquakes on the fault in the last 8,000 years. Given the last major movement was in 1717 GNS estimates suggest that there is a 50% chance that the fault will release the pressure build up (currently 8m of movement) in the next 50 years. This could cause a magnitude 8.0 quake at the epicentre and result in considerable damage across the South Island (including Marlborough) and the lower North Island. A large earthquake in the Wellington region or on the Hikurangi subduction zone are also likely have significant impacts for Marlborough. Hazard Social: Consequence (5) • Given the fatalities in Christchurch it is reasonable to assume multiple fatalities and possibly three times as many injured. • Many people from outside the District will be trapped in Marlborough. Built • Marlborough may be isolated with the three state highways possibly closed. Marlborough Civil Defence Emergency Management Plan, 2017-2022 Page 89