Chapter 3: Future Demand Components of the Future Demand Section 3.1 Demand drivers – Factors influencing the demand for water services. 3.3 Demand Forecasts – How future demand has been evaluated. 3.3 Demand Impact on Assets – asset additions, augmentation and utilisation to meet demand. 3.4 Demand Management Plan – Non-asset solutions to meet demand estimates. 3.5 Asset Programmes to Meet Demand – Major demand driven programmes and costs. 3.1 Demand Drivers Future demand for water services is influenced by a number of factors that work together in combination. Population growth - Information from the Census of 2013 suggest that population growth in New Zealand will almost certainly slow down and is likely to become negative within the next 40 years. This information has only recently become apparent and is a significant change to previous forecasts. Increased domestic water consumption - Household water consumption has increased over time as dwellings are fitted with more sanitary facilities, automatic washing machines, dishwashers, etc. and from increasing use of domestic irrigation systems. Increased industrial/business consumption - The primary production and food processing industries frequently have a significant demand for water. Other industries and businesses either require process water, staff facilities and/or demand a supply for firefighting purposes. Community/Individual supplies - There are many small community water supply schemes and a small number may seek to be taken-over by the Council or to join the reticulated areas. Individual households outside the current supply areas may also seek ‘out of district’ connection. Leakage/Unaccounted for water - All reticulation systems have an element of unfound water – the volume of water that arrives at the customers taps does not balance with the amount of water put into supply. Leakage, unknown connections, unauthorised use of hydrants and the difficulty of accurately assessing unmeasured water contribute to the ‘missing’ water. Climate Change - The evidence for long term climate change is increasing. There is now a reasonable consensus amongst expert climatologists of the meteorological changes. The implications for the water supply could be significant. 3.2 Demand Forecast Population Growth – Previous analysis of the four population census counts between 1991 - 2006 coincided with a period of rapid economic growth in the Marlborough region. Overall growth in the region was approaching 2% per annum although there were some significant local variations. For instance the Waikawa area saw population rise by an average of 5.5% whilst the usual resident population of Seddon decreased by 0.8%. In 2014 a reassessment of population projections was undertaken and presented to the Council Assets and Services Committee. The report extracted information from research by the University of Waikato, Institute of Page 32