Simplistically there are two consequences for Council infrastructure that need to be highlighted. 1. Councils can no longer simply design infrastructure for significant growth secure in the knowledge that at some time in the future the capacity will be required. 2. A greater portion of the population will be on fixed incomes so people will have a limited capacity to handle increased costs. Marlborough Council has access to the regional population projections made by Statistics NZ in 2011 based on the previous census (2006.) In addition, two reports of the Institute of Demographic & Economic Analysis (University of Waikato) 2012 provided further detailed analysis and population projections for the region and use Infometrics economic data. Both sources make projections on high, medium and low scenarios. The trends are broadly similar although the Waikato projections are generally lower and over a narrower range within the Statistics NZ range. The Institutes work, while only for Marlborough as a whole, looked further into the future, and projected that the population will, for ALL scenarios, peak then decline. The timing of the peak ranged from as early as 2017 for the low projection to as late as 2061 for the high projection. The release of the 2013 Usual Resident show the actual population for Blenheim (graphed below) to be very similar to the medium projection scenario of Statistics NZ. Some others were lower, and Marlborough as a whole (graphed below), tracked slight below the Low projections (from both Statistics NZ and Waikato). The methodology used for an infrastructure planning framework therefore uses the 2011 projections but adjusted to the 2013 census population. For the purpose of planning Council services it is suggested that the Statistics NZ Medium scenario is used as a base projection. Adjustments may be required depending on the service and the area within the region. Page 34