Over the next 35 years there will be a slowing down of population increase, followed by a period of no growth and eventual negative growth. The changes in population are not occurring uniformly through the region or uniformly through settlements. Generally the rural population is experiencing a more rapid slow-down in growth than the urban populations but there is also a shift in the “centre of gravity” of the Blenheim- Renwick and the Picton-Waikawa urban areas. The main urban growth areas are the green-field sites on the periphery of existing urban areas. For Blenheim urban growth pockets have been identified to the north and west of the existing town and have been zoned for urban residential development. The number of inhabitants per dwelling is also falling. This means the demand for housing will decline at a slower rate than the fall in population. However, it may also mean that the wealth per household declines at a higher rate. When planning services with a long lead time the increase in demand needs to be anticipated with a margin of error. A ‘just in time’ approach is prudent both from the point of view of cash flow and the uncertainty of the rapidly changing environment. Conversely, from a financial planning prospective it is prudent to anticipate a slower growth in the rateable property base and development contributions and a subsequent delay or reduction in revenue. On the other hand, many infrastructure assets have a planned life in excess of 80 years and as a large proportion of the total costs are in the initial construction it would be very expensive to under- estimate demand in the long term. Thus we should; err on the high side for such life components, use the medium scenario for shorter life components, and for all; build “Just In Time” Further Population growth used to be considered the most influential factor for the projection of future services. However, population growth alone is a poor indicator of demand for infrastructural services. Changes due to other factors such as climate change, environmental standards, national legislation, major hazard resilience, levels of service and other social aspects have a significant impact on the demand for the service. It can be difficult to assess and quantify these factors as there is a less empirical relationship between the cause and the effect on the demand. However it is important these factors are included in assessment of future design and included in planning and design of the infrastructure. The census information is also analysed for other data that may influence water consumption patterns such as the total number of properties, household occupancy rates, age distribution pattern and an estimation of transient visitors. Tourist visitors to the area can be a significant factor particularly in Picton and Havelock. Itinerant and seasonal worker population can also be considerable and is believed to significant in areas such as Renwick and Seddon Township. These are not included in the ‘usual resident’ data but estimates of temporary visitors are included when projecting peak demand for future water services. For example current estimates are that the usual resident population in Picton and Havelock can be temporarily swelled by up to 40% by summer visitors. Statistics New Zealand provides an interpretation of the census data based on births, deaths and migrations. They make future predictions over a range of nine growth scenarios based on projections of past trends but not informed by any intelligence of external influencing factors. Statistics NZ are due to release an update of the growth projections in early 2015. Their analysis will be compared with the in-house estimates and will be critical to future planning. The Council subscribe to BERL (Business and Economic Review Ltd) for related economic indicators. Page 35