Section 4: Demand Assessment Section 4: Demand Assessment Reserves are predominantly natural environments that undergo constant change. Not only may the environment change but user groups may also demand change in provision levels. The challenge is to remain flexible enough to respond to these changes. 4.1 The drivers behind the change 4.1.1 Marlborough Demographic Dynamics The 2013 census showed the usually resident population count of Marlborough was 43,4162. Population Growth – Previous analysis of the four population census counts between 1991 -2006 coincided with a period of rapid economic growth in the Marlborough region. Overall growth in the region was approaching 2% per annum although there were some significant local variations. For instance the Waikawa area saw population rise by an average of 5.5% whilst the usual resident population of Seddon decreased by 0.8%. In 2014 a reassessment of population projections was undertaken and presented to the Council Assets and Services Committee. The report extracted information from research by the University of Waikato, Institute of Demographic & Economic Analysis and early data released from the 2013 census. The report recognised some international trends with major national and regional implications in contrast to previous assumptions. There are two major trends in the demographics of developed countries that are unprecedented Within a generation most developed (including New Zealand) and many developing countries in the world will be experiencing negative population growth. The composition of the population will have more older (65+) people. These trends can be seen in the table below. 2 Statistics NZ 2013 Quarterly review Page 49