Section 4: Demand Assessment Statistic NZ is predicting slowing population increases across New Zealand with Marlborough expected to receive a 1% (medium) increase by 2031. It will be prudent to review population trends used in this document regularly. 4.2 Residential Development, Greenfield Infill, and Increasing Population Density Residential development is partially guided by the Proposed Wairau/Awatere Resource Management Plan, which specifies under subdivision and development 23.5.1 policy 2.2 that subdivisions will occur in a manner that ensures the adverse effects of subdivision/development on open space and community facilities are mitigated by requiring contributions towards the provision of additional open space and community facilities. Where this development and the resulting service demands occur, the Council assesses the existing reserve and amenity provision, and either acquires land to develop as a reserve and/or funds to improve the existing reserves. Council has policy and a Level of Service indicator of provision of a Neighbour reserve in the urban environment every 500 metres. This is assessed during the resource consent process triggered by the subdivision activity. 4.3 Further to Population Driver Population growth used to be considered the most influential factor for the projection for reserve provision. However, population growth alone is a poor indicator of demand for Reserves and assets. Changes due to other factors such as recreation trends, infrastructure advancements (such as artificial surfaces) sport programming, industry standards, national legislation, levels of service and other social aspects have a significant impact on the demand for the service. It can be difficult to assess and quantify these factors as there is a less empirical relationship between the cause and the effect on the demand. However it is important these factors are included in assessment of future planning and provision. 4.3.1 User Trends – Sportsgrounds and Recreation Facilities Sport New Zealand produced a Survey Series which was based on the findings of the Sport New Zealand’s 2011 Young People Survey. The main trends identified by the surveys are that the level of interest and participation in physical activity by youth has declined, while on the other hand, the activity level of adults has increased. Included in the top 10 sports/activities for boys are Swimming, Athletics, Rugby Union, Running/jogging/cross country, Cycling/biking, Basketball, Touch, Badminton, Table tennis and Fishing. The top 10 sports/activities for girls include Swimming, Athletics, Netball, Football, Running/jogging/cross country, Cycling/biking, Gymnastics, Basketball, Touch and Dance. The preferred sports and leisure activities for adults vary across gender, age and culture. Sports and leisure activities popular with the adult population include golf, tennis, touch, cricket, rugby, horse riding and netball, with an increase in leisure activities such as walking and enjoying the outdoors An aging population does not necessarily represent a need for more Bowling greens. Trends in cycling both on and off road are maintaining participants into far greater age cohorts than previously. Being aware of these trends and national statistics is important for MDC in Asset management planning. 4.3.2 Visitor Populations An increase in visitors to the district is forecast. Blenheim and Picton are service centres for holiday activity in the greater district and Picton’s role as the Interislander ferry port means a substantial through flow of travellers. Page 51