Financial Strategy Council will continue to take advantage of the current low interest rate environment reliant on inward migration. as it looks to increase its debt, by locking in longer term rates where possible. Many migrants are attracted and settle in the larger cities. The elderly also tend to 3. Inflation Projections move to urban areas where social and medical services are more readily available. Council, along with the majority of other Councils in New Zealand, uses inflation For both these reasons statisticians are predicting a general decline in rural projections provided by Business Economic Research Limited (BERL). These provincial populations and growth in the major urban areas, especially Auckland. projections are used to inflate Council’s forecast operating and capital expenditure Statistics New Zealand has provided a range of population projections based on the in years two to 10 of the Long Term Plan. results of the 2013 census. The low, medium and high growth scenarios for the BERL prepares projections for road, property, water, energy, staff, earth-moving, Marlborough region are shown below. pipe lines and private sector wages. These are consolidated into an overall Local As the sunniest area in New Zealand, our climate, beautiful environments and Government Cost Index (LGCI). To generate its forecasts, BERL estimates healthy economy will continue to attract people to our area. This will help to relationships based on historic data between price indices and a set of driver counterbalance the general trend for provincial New Zealand. Partly because of this economic variables (e.g. GDP, employment, oil prices, construction, investment and uncertainty planners use the medium to high projection as a basis for planning CPI). future service provision in Marlborough. There are long lead-in times for major Currently BERL are forecasting the following combined increases in its LGCI: projects with public consultation, land purchase negotiations, resource consent approval and construction. Planning conservatively for medium/high growth also provides some future proofing for assets that may have a useful life in excess of 80 Forecast BERL LGCI years. 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2.06% 2.12% 2.17% 2.21% 2.35% 2.29% 2.41% 2.53% 2.55% 2.64% These increases make up a significant portion of the proposed rates increase over 10 years of the Long Term Plan contained on page 162 of this Strategy. 4. Growth The number of people in the District, (both permanent residents and visitors), where they choose to live and the growth in economic activity directly affects the demand for land for development, infrastructure and other services the Council provides. This growth underpins land use planning, infrastructure developments, where and when new services and facilities are required and their cost. Marlborough’s population in 2016 was estimated to have increased since the 2013 census to approximately 45,500. More than 55% of the Marlborough population lives in Blenheim, with a further 16% in Picton and Renwick. Most population growth since 2006 has occurred in Blenheim and Renwick. Although Picton saw an overall decline in usual resident population, there was strong growth in Waikawa. Prime building land in Waikawa is becoming less readily available and future growth in this area may be limited. There is clear evidence from the 2013 census that the rate of population growth throughout New Zealand is slowing down. Natural reproductive growth is declining due to the age distribution of the population and continued growth is becoming more 2018-2028 Long Term Plan Page 160