Assumptions, Disclosure and Compliance Assumptions, Disclosure and Compliance Assumptions With any financial forecasting, a number of assumptions must be made. The following assumptions have been made in the preparation of this document. Also presented for each assumption is the “Level of uncertainty”, “Risk” and “Financial Impact” for each. % change on year earlier June 2017 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.2 Legislative June 2018 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.8 Assumption June 2019 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 2.3 Local Government may be significantly affected by changes in legislation as a result of June 2020 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.5 a new Government being elected in late 2017. However, until the Coalition settles in fully there is no certainty as to its policy direction and specifics to achieve its desired June 2021 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.3 outcomes. As a result of the uncertainty, It is assumed that legislative and Government June 2022 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.4 Policy changes will not significantly impact upon Council’s current responsibilities and activities. June 2023 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.4 June 2024 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.5 Level of Uncertainty June 2025 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.6 Medium. June 2026 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.6 Risk June 2027 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.7 It is highly likely that the new Government will want to advance its own agenda. As a June 2028 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.8 result of local government having a very broad range of activities it is also very 20 year 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.6 probable the cumulative effect on Council will be significant. average % pa Financial Impact BERL also consolidates the above adjustors into a consolidated Local Government To date Government’s reforms have not reduced legislative obligations, costs or the Cost Index (LGCI) which is further split between operating and capital expenditure. impact on the ratepayer. It is too early to assess the financial impact of the Government’s signalled policy announcements. However, it is expected that there will Year ending OPEX CAPEX TOTAL be specific requirements resulting from legislative change, the Havelock North Water annual average % change Quality Inquiry and a continued issuance of National Policy Statements. However, Council is moving to address the likely outcomes of the Havelock North Inquiry in its June 2017 1.5 1.5 1.52 infrastructure planning. June 2018 1.8 1.8 1.80 Inflation June 2019 2.0 2.0 2.06 June 2020 2.2 2.2 2.12 Assumption June 2021 2.2 2.2 2.17 The costs, revenues and asset values reflected in this plan reflect the following “Forecasts of Price Level Change Adjustors to 2028” produced by Business Economic June 2022 2.2 2.2 2.21 Research Limited (BERL) in September 2017 for the Society of Local Government June 2023 2.3 2.3 2.35 Managers. 2018-2028 Long Term Plan Page 231 raeY lebaL gnidnE gninnalP dnanoitalugeR gnidaoRtropsnarTytinummoC seitivitcAdna retaWnemnorivnE lat