Infrastructure Strategy water treatment plants Renwick, Havelock, Awatere Rural and Wairau Valley may Risk Medium need to be accelerated. Treatment of the Riverlands supply is also a likely outcome. Level of Uncertainty Medium The programme of works outlined in this strategy has not been amended as a result of the inquiry’s findings. Sufficient detail of the recommendations were available to Impact High impact on flood risk, if the rate of change is much faster than currently include discussion of the possible consequences in this strategy but were delivered too predicted. late and too uncertain to change the existing programme. Of greater significance, but less likely to occur, is the Council being required to Roading Assumptions oversee or take over small privately run community supplies within the Marlborough Assumption: Oil prices remain in-line with general inflation over the course of the region. strategy Level of Uncertainty: Medium Risk: Increased cost of bitumen based materials Impact:Medium or high. Level of Uncertainty - Medium Water supply assumption: The Government may require councils to add fluoride to the Impact – Bitumen prices are linked to oil prices. In the past prices have been volatile drinking water to promote better dental development in children. but have been more stable recently. Large cost increases would mean a reduction in the renewals programme which in turn would increase maintenance costs Risk: If it is concluded that fluoride should be added there will be costs of installing and maintaining fluoride dosing equipment. The cost of initial installation at all treatment Assumption: the proportion of sealed and unsealed roads remains constant plants is likely to be relatively modest but will have an ongoing operational cost. Risk: Low. The proportion of unsealed roads that are sealed is around 0.3% per Level of Uncertainty: High annum Impact: Low. Assumption: The composition of the road vehicle fleet remains constant Flood protection assumption Risk: Increased number or axel weight of heavy vehicles The current consent to use herbicide as the key tool to control aquatic weeds expires Level of Uncertainty : Low. A lot of road infrastructure throughout New Zealand would in February 2019. Our assumption is that this resource consent will be renewed with nor cope with increase in axel weight similar conditions to the current consent. Impact: Medium - accelerated deterioration of the road network Risk Medium Assumption: The funding criteria and policy used by NZTA will remain relatively Level of Uncertainty Medium unchanged, including NZTA’s approach to funding of emergency events. Impact Medium impact on drainage capacity, if the Council is unable to use herbicide Risk:Increased costs for ratepayers. as one of the methods to control weeds. Level of uncertainty: Low Assumption Climate change will result in sea level rise of 0.3m by 2050, and a 1% AEP flood will increase in size by 10-15%. 2018-2028 Long Term Plan Page 217