responding to covid covid recovery Scenarios The COVID Pandemic will have major implications for the visitor economy and visitation over the next 3-5 years and increases uncertainty over forecasting the path to recovery. The plan has recognised this uncertainty by producing two updated to April 2021 scenario based forecasts for recovery and insights on how recovery by visitor economy sectors and markets is expected to occur. The closure of national borders and restrictions on domestic travel and operations has drastically impacted visitation. Increased competition from interstate destinations seeking to mitigate against the loss of international visitation is also a threat to the region. More positively, the visitor mix across the Great Ocean Road will support its recovery including the strength of domestic intrastate overnight and domestic day trip visitors. Lesser reliance on business travel is also expected to help the region as this travel is expected to recover more slowly than leisure travel as companies substitute online for face-to-face gatherings. Less positively, more of the regional visitation is focused on weekends with mid-weeks much worse than usual, fostering profitless volume for many operators. WATCH > Karl Flowers, Decisive Tourism Consulting. IMPACTS OF THE COVID RECESSION IMPACTS OF THE COVID RECESSION IMPACTS OF THE COVID RECESSION Two scenarios for GOR region visitor economy recovery from COVID impacts to end 2022/23: 1. Optimistic Recovery 2. Slower Recovery Assumptions International borders re-open Dec 2021 Faster global/Aust economy recovery Traffic light system cuts inter but promotes intra state domestic travel through 2021 International borders re-open Mar 2022 Slower global/Aust economy recovery Traffic light system cuts inter but promotes intra state domestic travel through 2021/22 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Change in GOR Region Visitor economy direct tourism spending (after inflation) and visitor economy jobs compared to 2018/19 -26% -10% -3% -36% -21% -9% Change in year average total GOR region jobs due to visitor spending compared to the 13,087 jobs in 2018/19 (3,403) (1,309) (393) (4,711) (2,748) (1,178) Source: Karl Flowers, Decisive Tourism Consulting, April 2021. Read the Impacts of the COVID Recession on the Great Ocean Road Region Visitor Economy and its Path to Economic Recovery report here: