Volume One 19. Climate Change Enable the taking of surface water for storage purposes through the application of a controlled activity rule to the abstraction. [D] 19.M.7 District rules Apply a range of permitted activity rules to farming and forestry activities. Use broad definitions of “farming” and “forestry” so that farmers and foresters are able to modify farming practices and diversify or change crop/stock types in response to changes in climate. Enable the creation of permanent carbon sinks through the application of appropriate rules. Issue 19B – Climate change could affect natural hazards and create a coastal inundation hazard associated with sea level rise. The predictions of climate change include predictions of more extreme weather events. For the east coast of the South Island, including Marlborough, this means drier conditions and an increase in the incidence of drought. Drier conditions will also increase the risk of fire. Climate change may also result in a change in the frequency of extreme rainfall events. Any increase in frequency in such events could lead to more frequent and severe flooding. In rural areas, if extreme events such as droughts and floods become more severe and frequent, costs associated with dealing with stock losses, increased soil erosion and damage and disruptions to farm operations would be expected to increase. To date, there is no indication that severe Marlborough rainfall events are increasing, though average global temperatures have clearly risen over the last ten years. Global warming is expected to result in a rise in sea level due to thermal expansion of ocean water and melting of glacial and polar ice. Sea level is predicted to rise around 0.18 to 0.59 metres by 2090. This rise potentially increases the risk of inundation at the coast. Coastal erosion could also become more prevalent, increasing the need for coastal protection measures. Along the coastal margin of the Wairau Plain, the level of the Wairau River bar and river mouth efficiency has far greater influence on the potential for inundation than the projected sea level rise. Further south, the topography and lack of settlement minimises any inundation risk. However, the risks are far greater in the Marlborough Sounds where settlement and associated infrastructure (especially means of access, such as jetties and access tracks) tend to be located in the coastal environment and near the water edge. More frequent extreme weather events would also pose a significant risk to regionally significant infrastructure such as buildings, roads, water, sewerage, electricity transmission and communication systems. [RPS, R, C, D] Objective 19.2 – Avoid and mitigate the adverse effects of natural hazards influenced by climate change. Provisions elsewhere in the MEP seek to avoid and mitigate the adverse effects of natural hazards. This objective recognises that the severity and/or frequency of those natural hazards could potentially increase as a result of climate change. In these circumstances, any additional adverse effect should likewise be avoided or sufficiently mitigated. While it could make existing natural hazards worse, climate change in itself creates a new hazard in sea level rise. It is appropriate that the adverse effects of sea level rise and the associated inundation of land are avoided and mitigated given that these adverse effects are permanent. 19 – 5