19. Climate Change Volume One [R] Policy 19.2.1 – Monitor flood hazard on an ongoing basis. The magnitude and incidence of flooding may increase in response to climate change, particularly the predictions for more severe rainfall events. Policies in Chapter 11 - Natural Hazards establish a framework for reducing the risk of flooding to adversely affect communities. This is achieved by mapping the known and predicted flood risk areas and applying appropriate management to activities within those mapped areas. If climate change does result in increased magnitude or incidence of flooding, then this information will be collected and used to inform the review of the existing management framework. In response, it may be necessary to change and/or increase the boundaries of the flood hazard overlay in the MEP. Any such changes would have to pass through the First Schedule process of the RMA. Policy 11.1.16 in Chapter 11 - Natural Hazards provides more detail on this matter. [R, C, D] Policy 19.2.2 - Avoid any inundation of new buildings and where appropriate infrastructure within the coastal environment by ensuring that adequate allowance is made for the following factors when locating, designing and/or constructing any building or infrastructure: (a) rising sea levels as a result of climate change of at least 0.5 metres relative to the 1980-1999 average; and (b) storm surge. In 2013, the International Panel on Climate Change determined that it is very likely that the rate of global mean sea level rise during the twenty-first century will exceed the rate observed during 1971– 2010 due to increases in ocean warming and loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets. The Ministry for the Environment advises local government (for planning and decision timeframes out to 2090-2099), to plan for a sea level rise of 0.5 metres relative to the 1980-1999 average as a base value but that assessments be made of potential consequences from a sea level rise of up to 0.8 metres. Although the life of the MEP is only ten years, buildings have a minimum design life of 50 years and property titles have an indefinite life. It is therefore important that any new building is located, designed and/or constructed having regard to the long term risk of inundation as a result of sea level rise. This approach is also appropriate to infrastructure located in the coastal environment that is not intended by design to be subject to inundation. The Ministry for the Environment advice has been utilised to establish the increase in sea level to be applied. Storm surges occurring in response to low-pressure weather systems can cause higher than normal sea levels and inundation of low lying areas. This hazard increases with increasing sea levels, so any risk assessment made in accordance with this policy should also take into account the potential additive effects of storm surge on top of sea level rise. This policy will be applied to the determination of resource consent applications. Rules elsewhere in the MEP require buildings to be set back from the coastal marine area. This in itself will act to protect buildings from the adverse effects of sea level rise and/or storm surge. However, when applications are made to establish a building within this setback, then the policy will be able to be applied. 19 – 6